I. Cycle s1. The overall macro environment is ultimately closely related to crypto

First of all, unfortunately I still talk about that the current blockchain market market still has no way to get rid of the development of the real economy, the trend of the cryptocurrency market is still the increased leverage version of the real economy at present, a lot of speculation and madness, transient profits in mine box the stock market, housing market, such as mortgage borrowing, most of them become the living water of the blockchain world, naturally, in the market tightening, exchange rate rise, kill the stock market to drop demand At the moment, the natural digital currency becomes the softest and easiest to give up this piece first, so the market also kills the most fierce. On the contrary, we may say that the real need may not have been formed in the blockchain, a bit like the Internet in 2000, we have seen a lot of infrastructure, such as Yahoo, Google, but we have not until the mobile Internet era, until Iphone and other smart phones occurred to open a new game, now basically no one can get rid of the network and Life, the unreal world is not virtual at all, but a great godsend thatantminer s19 pro alibaba supports everyone's physical and spiritual life.

What resilient real economies (like Indonesia last year) have taught me

For example, in 2022, the global economy was in a widespread downturn, but there was one country in Southeast Asia that had a particularly strong economic performance, and that was Indonesia. With the development of the market for raw materials and mining plants, Indonesia's GDP and the rupiah once outperformed other Asian countries whose currencies were heavily depreciated against the US dollar. Returning to the blockchain market, we can see that GMX and TreasureDao actually have relatively bright performance at the moment under the potential inducement of Arbitrum's coin offering, but looking back at the overall cryptocurrency market, are there any requirements here that are independent of the real economy? If so, then perhaps the overall Crypto trend will have more resilience.

Personally, I think the most important thing to learn about macroeconomic and crypto trends is: "If a trend is predictable, it is better to prepare in advance, even if you can't catch the exact time of the event, than to cut your property in pain when it happens.

2. Ponzi and Cycle

Ponzi model has always attracted my attention, although many people will make a direct connection between it and "scam", but I prefer to think that it is a kind of "capital raising method" with a very high failure rate, in these Ponzimodel, there are almost few participants who can really avoid minimal damage, starting from algorithmic stable coins, such as ESD, to the set of the big. The ranking of OlympusDao ($OHM), which used to squeeze into the top 50, to Luna ($UST), which finally made it to the top 10 in market capitalization this year, and later StepN, almost all adopt Ponzi's model, after which the potential rising token or high annualized return as a reward for participants to invest money and make the full system work.

After experiencing OHM, this year I am not too interested in projects for Ponzi, but this also led me to miss Luna and too late to add StepN, I personally feel that when the overall market trend without obvious flip, Ponzi will always be agtx 1080 ethereum hashrate topic, but when the bull and bear cycle shift, Ponzi kind of project must be to show the death spiral, the past day can 30% 50% up The time has come when a day down 90% is not unexpected, because in the case of the Pang project, he has no way to generate revenue outside of the money plate. For example, today if the deduction of customer input and transaction costs, the project itself does not have its own products, then with the withdrawal of users, he is lack of specific income support.